The TiO2industry had experienced a difficult 18 months from mid 2018 through 2019, seeing consistent sales volume decline, as a period of formidable destocking was immediately followed by a global trade war. First quarter 2020 sales outside China were brisk, as sales volume increased by an estimated 12% vs. 1Q19. China was dealing with COVID-19, as their sales volumes dropped by nearly 25% during the quarter.

As COVID-19 spread outside China, TiO2销售受到影响。基于来自中国工业的业界的多国生产商和观察员的最新评论,中国以外的销售预计将在20季度20季度比上一年的季度下降12-15%,而中国恢复则缓慢。

TIPMC提供了一些洞察力,同时认为迹象显示出行业恢复。

一个亮点是北美建筑涂料。DIY涂层非常强大,如多种涂料制造商所指出的。根据来自华北研究的数据,DIY涂料销售增长了50%,与2019年同期相比(图1)。Sherwin Williams最近指出,它认为Diy涂料将弥补其美洲集团专业绘画部分的销售销售,相信该部分将在2020年的销售增加。全球,Tio2塑料销售一直是强大的,因为塑料杂货袋和在对阵Covid-19战斗中使用的材料已经存在强劲的增长。188金宝搏bet官网

尾随7天DIY室内涂料需求指数
FIGURE 1 »尾随7天DIY室内涂料需求指数。

由于建筑涂料是一个更大的TiO消费者2除了其他部分,对涂层部分的整体影响并不像TIO的毁灭2(图2)。

2018 estimated North American TiO2 consumption by segment.
FIGURE 2 »2018 estimated North American TiO2 consumption by segment.

转向区域角度,欧洲,特别是意大利,西班牙和法国,受到所有TIO的影响2赛段,因为锁定停止所有被认为是非必要的行业。亚洲也一直很难打击,尤其是印度,最快的Tio消费者2the last decade. Other parts of Southern Asia are facing similar lockdowns, with the timing of normal business activity still very much in question. Korea, Japan and China, which account for over 30% of TiO2在全球销售,进一步开启其经济。生产者希望这些经济体可以恢复到3Q结束时更加正常的活动,为行业提供推动(图3)。

2018年全球估计区域需求。
图3»2018年全球估计区域需求。

下一步是什么?

Predicting the length and depth of the impact of COVID-19 on TiO2销售很难。基于区域经济和TIO内的区域的恢复,蒂姆布认为恢复将进入波浪2customer base. TiPMC believes 2020 impact will be 9-11% in reduced sales, based on its best estimates. 2020 will be the third year of declining sales for TiO2. History shows us that TiO2rebounds ahead of most industries in recovery, reaching back to its correlation to long-term GDP trends. Depending on timing, recovery may be as high as 15% YoY, based on TiPMC modelling.